توانایی پیش‌بینی کنندگی وجه نقد عملیاتی، سود خالص و اجزای سود

نوع مقاله: علمی ترویجی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد حسابداری دانشگاه اصفهان

2 استادیار گروه علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

3 کارشناس ارشد حسابداری دانشگاه غیرانتفاعی هشت بهشت اصفهان

چکیده

در این پژوهش توانایی وجه نقد عملیاتی، سود خالص و اجزای سود برای پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی ارزیابی شده است. در این راستا، سه فرضیه تدوین شده است که در فرضیه اول به مقایسه قدرت وجه ­نقد عملیاتی و سود خالص برای پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی پرداخته می­شود. در فرضیه دوم سود به دو جزء تعهدی و نقدی تقسیم و تأثیر این تقسیم‌بندی بر توان توضیح‌دهندگی سود ارزیابی می‌شود و در فرضیه سوم کل اقلام تعهدی به اجزای آن یعنی اقلام تعهدی اختیاری و غیر اختیاری تقسیم و توان پیش‌بینی کنندگی سود با این تقسیم‌بندی بررسی می­شود. برای تخمین مدل‌های پژوهش از اطلاعات مالی 107 شرکت، طی سال‌های 94-86 وازروشداده‌های ترکیبی استفاده گردیده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که سود نسبت به وجه نقد عملیاتی برای پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی توانمندی بهتری دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که قدرت توضیح دهندگی سود در پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی با تقسیم سود به اجزای آن یعنی جزء نقدی و تعهدی افزایش می‌یابد؛ اما تقسیم اقلام تعهدی به اقلام تعهدی اختیاری و غیر اختیاری نمی­تواند توضیح دهندگی سود را افزایش دهد





در این پژوهش توانایی وجه نقد عملیاتی، سود خالص و اجزای سود برای پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی ارزیابی شده است. در این راستا، سه فرضیه تدوین شده است که در فرضیه اول به مقایسه قدرت وجه ­نقد عملیاتی و سود خالص برای پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی پرداخته می­شود. در فرضیه دوم سود به دو جزء تعهدی و نقدی تقسیم و تأثیر این تقسیم‌بندی بر توان توضیح‌دهندگی سود ارزیابی می‌شود و در فرضیه سوم کل اقلام تعهدی به اجزای آن یعنی اقلام تعهدی اختیاری و غیر اختیاری تقسیم و توان پیش‌بینی کنندگی سود با این تقسیم‌بندی بررسی می­شود. برای تخمین مدل‌های پژوهش از اطلاعات مالی 107 شرکت، طی سال‌های 94-86 وازروشداده‌های ترکیبی استفاده گردیده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که سود نسبت به وجه نقد عملیاتی برای پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی توانمندی بهتری دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که قدرت توضیح دهندگی سود در پیش‌بینی وجه نقد آتی با تقسیم سود به اجزای آن یعنی جزء نقدی و تعهدی افزایش می‌یابد؛ اما تقسیم اقلام تعهدی به اقلام تعهدی اختیاری و غیر اختیاری نمی­تواند توضیح دهندگی سود را افزایش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting Ability of Operating Cash, Net Income and Income Components

چکیده [English]

The present study intends to evaluate the ability of operating cash flow, net income, and earning components in forecasting future cash flow. In this regard, three hypotheses have been formulated. The first hypothesis compares the power of operating cash flow with net profit in forecasting future cash flows. The second hypothesis addresses the income as accrual and cash components and evaluates the effect of these two components on the explanatory power of income. In the third hypothesis, all accruals are divided into their components, namely, discretionary and non-discretionary accruals, and the forecasting power of income is evaluated based on this division. For estimating the research models, the financial information of 107 companies spanning from 2007-2015 was investigated through panel data analysis. The study results showed that net income better forecasts future cash flow compared to operating cash flow. Moreover, the results indicated that the explanatory power of net income in predicting future cash increases upon dividing the earning into its components, namely, cash and accrual components. However, the division of accruals into discretionary and non-discretionary components cannot increase the explanatory power of earning.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Income
  • Operating cash flow
  • Forecasting of future cash
  • Discretionary accruals
  • Non-discretionary accruals
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